澳门足球博彩官方网址
2023年10月23日
三秒钟改变了历史
Counterfactual history explored in JCLS presentation via Kennedy assassination
It's factual history that the Secret Service reaction to the shots fired in Dallas on November 22, 1963年不是直接的.
The never-ending debate is how different might the world look today if that response time had been better.
你会.S. 地面部队已被派往越南战争?
肯尼迪的两起暗杀事件是否可以避免?
Would the list of American Presidents look quite different than what we have today?
All of those unanswerable questions – and many more – were explored during last Wednesday night's Joan Crawford Lecture Series presentation What If: Counterfactual History and the JFK Assassination.
Dr. 理查德•中型股, 加勒特学院的校长和JCLS的主持人, observed that counterfactual history can be likened to "history without certainty.”
“传统历史被认为是具体的、可证明的,中盘股说, 谁拥有学士和硕士学位的美国.S. 历史和教育学博士学位. "Counterfactual history is anything but concrete and provable.
"It's based on extrapolating timelines in which key historical events don't occur, 或者有不同的结果, 然后假设可能的不同结果,Midcap补充道.
反事实历史的主要特征之一, 根据Midcap, 这就是所谓的“蝴蝶效应”吗.”
"Making small changes in a historical event can have large impacts down the road,中盘股说, who taught history at Chesapeake College before becoming 澳门足球博彩官方网址's president. “在反事实的历史中, ‘butterflying' something that happened away is what takes place when that small change leads to other changes.”
Midcap以肯尼迪遇刺案为例, explaining the ensuing investigation indicated the first shot would not, 本身, 都是致命的.
"Secret 服务 agents on the Kennedy detail in Dallas said they had enough time between the two shots that hit Kennedy to debate whether what they heard was a firecracker or backfire from an automobile,中盘股说. "If driver Will Greer had immediately sped up and begun taking evasive action, 肯尼迪总统很可能会活下来.”
如果是这样的话, 中型股问, what historical events that followed might have been "butterflied away”?
"Three things that are easily butterflied away are Lyndon Johnson's presidency, 鲍比·肯尼迪遇刺案, 以及——在较小程度上——美国.S. 卷入越南战争，”Midcap说.
如果肯尼迪还活着, it's not even certain he would have retained Johnson as his vice president,中盘股说. "An influence-peddling scandal involving Johnson that was just starting to break in November 1963 was shut down once he became president. 那件丑闻在1963年就为公众所知了吗, it's likely Johnson would have been dropped from the ticket in '64.”
Midcap noted 鲍比·肯尼迪遇刺案 took place while he was running for president in 1968 – a campaign he was unlikely to have undertaken had JFK lived.
“如果肯尼迪还活着, Bobby was likely still have been in the Kennedy cabinet – either still as attorney general or possible secretary of defense – rather than running successfully for the U.S. 1964年进入参议院. He simply wouldn't have had the political base at that time to run for president – and thus wouldn't have been an assassin's target in 1968.”
Extrapolating the impact of Kennedy's survival on the course of the Vietnam War is much more difficult.
"There were a lot of conflicting opinions – even among President Kennedy's senior advisors – over how the U.S. response in Vietnam would have differed from how President Johnson approached it,” conceded Midcap.
“我们所知道的是，有1.6万名美国士兵.S. military advisors – and no American ground troops – in Vietnam at the time of Kennedy's death,中盘股说. “我们还知道他在去世前一个月签署了NSAC-263, 授权撤回1,到1963年底，这类顾问的人数达到了1000人. That indicates to me that he was at least potentially looking for an exit ramp out of Vietnam.
"If you postulate that Kennedy gets us out of Vietnam, what else gets butterflied?中盘股问道. “嗯, much of the 1960s turbulence – including the war-related college campus riots – probably doesn't take place. 美国经济可能会好转.S. doesn't absorb the estimated $176 billion it took to fight that war between 1961 and 1973.”
All of which, 根据Midcap, might butterfly away the Nixon Presidency.
"Nixon used an unpopular war and a divided Democratic Party to barely eke out a win over Hubert Humphrey and third-party candidate George Wallace in 1968,中盘股说. 他说:“没有战争，美国关系得到改善.S. 经济方面，我不认为尼克松会赢得选举.”
哪一个, 中型股说, then butterflies away the Watergate scandal and the resulting cynicism of many citizens toward politics.
"You could make a case that Kennedy living dramatically rearranges our lineup of presidents,中盘股说. "Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon are much less likely to reach the White House. If Nixon doesn't win, Gerald Ford doesn't become president because Nixon never resigns.
"Jimmy Carter won the first post-Watergate presidential election as an honest outsider who could be trusted,中盘股继续说道. “没有水门事件，我不认为会有卡特总统.
"George 布什 – who built his political career through presidential appointments by Nixon and Ford – likely has no plausible path to the presidency,中盘股说. "And with no President George 布什, is there a pathway for a President George W. 布什?
如果肯尼迪还活着, you have at least six men who became president who might not have reached the White House,Midcap总结道。.
Midcap acknowledged that there are equally valid arguments for a different history had Kennedy lived. He said those debates are what make counterfactual history so intriguing.
"That's one reason why the Back to the Future film series is so popular,中盘股说, 指的是迈克尔·J·杰克逊主演的三部电影. 狐狸. "That series essentially asked what would happen if you went back in time and changed one event. Exploring those alternate timelines provided the central theme of the whole series.”
